WestSportsReport.com Mock Draft Q&A Recap
With the first of hopefully many fantasy mock drafts that we are going to participate in this year in the books, this one was special. It involved 12 different websites, using fantasy football “experts.” It went as well as it could for being a draft held in June. As the fantasy season gets closer, I hope to do another one a little closer to the start of Fantasy Football.
Here is a recap of the draft.
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Here are the questions and their responses to each:
JunkyardJake.com: RC:
Who was your team’s biggest reach?
Jets Defense: Although I view the Jets as a sleeper defense this year, it’s definitely conceivable that they would have been available 2-3 rounds later. Taken: Round 11, Pick 1
Who was your team’s biggest steal?
Peyton Manning: I was very pleased to see Peyton Manning fall all the way to the 3rd round, he is still an elite QB choice this season in my opinion. Taken: Round 3, Pick 1
Overall Draft Reaches:
Fred Taylor: Pick 10.08: Fred Taylor could surprise, but it’s hard to expect Taylor to be a reliable option this year given the Patriots multiple RB rotation and the fact he is now 33 years old. Taylor dropped off considerably in 2008 to 556 yards from 1202 yards in 2007.
Cedric Benson: Pick 6.01: Cedric Benson is probably the favorite to start for the Bengals, but even if he beats out Kenny Watson Brian Leonard, DeDe Dorsey and/or Bernard Scott, he will likely be pulled on 3rd downs and just doesn’t seem to play with the determination you like to see.
Overall Draft Steals:
Laurence Maroney: Pick 10.06: Laurence Maroney could be the ultimate steal. Maroney was going in the 2nd-3rd round last year, and if he regains his form, he should be the lead rusher for the Patriots.
Marshawn Lynch: Pick 5.02: Even with a possible 3 game suspension, like FFXtreme stated in his comments, Marshawn Lynch is a great value in the 5th round, and probably should not have fallen that far.
Santonio Holmes: Pick 5.05: Good value here, considering that TJ Houshmandzadeh and Roy Williams were drafted before him in the 4th round.
Brian Robiskie: Pick 10.05: As a possible rookie starter, Robiskie looks like a good risk to take this year.
Glen Coffee: Pick 14.04: Coffee seems like a great RB to target as your #3-#4 guy this year. He runs with determination and should contribute a Tim Hightower-type rookie season.
FantasyFootballXtreme.com: Smitty
What was Your Team’s Biggest Reach?
Ben Roethlisberger: Our biggest reach in this draft was probably Ben Roethlisberger at 7.02. He will likely fall further than this in August drafts, but QBs flew off the board quick in this one. Reach or not, we ultimately love the value and believe that Roethy will turn heads in 2009. He was quietly a 5-7 fantasy quarterback in 2007 while ranking 19th in attempts that season. With Holmes set to breakout, Roethy should be a huge sleeper in 2009. Taken: Round 7, Pick 2
What Was Your Team’s Biggest Steal?
Shonn Greene: One of our biggest steals might end up being Shonn Green at 8.11. Thomas Jones, 31, will most likely start the season as the team’s top rusher, but most backs fall off the face of the earth at the age of 30, so I firmly believe that we have seen the last of Thomas Jones as far domination goes. This is Greene’s team now, and even though it could take 4-6 weeks to get into that starting role, I truly believe it is inevitable. Greene could rush for 1,000 yards as a rookie. Taken: Round 8, Pick 11
Overall Draft Reaches:
Steve Slaton: Pick 1.09 : As far as reaches go, I’m not a big fan of taking Steve Slaton inside the first-round in 2009. I wouldn’t even grab Slaton as my first back at the top of the 2nd. Steve Slaton is by far my biggest early-round bust candidate heading into the 2009 fantasy football season. He looked great last year and the little guy truly is a talented runner, but he doesn’t have the frame to be a full-time guy in this league — And Houston doesn’t appear likely to decrease his workload any time soon. Slaton owners are probably excited to hear that, but the second year running back won’t have a long career if handed that kind of workload! Slaton’s current ADP is right around the the 1.11 – 2.03 range, which is extremely high. My advice to fantasy owners is, to let someone else reach for Slaton and only attack him if he falls to the bottom of the second. I know this isn’t going to be popular advice, as so many want Slaton to succeed as a full-time rusher in this league, but running backs emerge during their rookie campaigns and then vanish from the elite forever (think A-Train
Overall Draft Steals:
Steven Jackson: Pick 1.10: The biggest steals in this draft (not including any of our picks) have to be Steven Jackson at 1.10. Jackson is in our top 5 overall in all formats and shouldn’t be falling past the 1.06-1.07.
Frank Gore: Pick 2.06: Gore, 26, is also inside my top 5-7 overall in all formats, so falling well into the 2nd is insane value if you ask me. If Gore continues to fall into the 12-14 range, which is really where his current ADP is, I think I will be trading down this year in a lot of drafts (if handed a high first-round draft pick).
Other Thoughts?
I think that August drafts are going to look a lot different than this draft. I don’t see Steven Jackson falling as far as 1.10, nor do I see Frank Gore falling down to 2.06. There are some other players that appear out of place, either going too high, or going too low… Don’t get me wrong, variation is going to happen from one draft to the next, but I even anticipate the rookie rushers to go a lot higher in a month from now.
FantasyDraftEdge.com: Scott Endsley:
What Was Your Team’s Biggest Reach?
Jonathon Stewart: Jonathan Stewart is injury prone and the most recent injury may have been more serious than originally thought. We like Stewart on our roster if he is 100% this season – but taking that chance in the 5th round was too soon. Taken: Round 5, Pick 3
What Was Your Team’s Biggest Steal?
Le’Ron McClain: 902 yards 10 TDs last year in the 14th round, we’ll take that. Taken: Round 14, Pick 10
Overall Draft Reaches:
We continue to be amazed that QBs at WRs go so early in drafts – a Top 10 pick that’s not a RB seems like a reach to us in standard scoring leagues.
Overall Thoughts?
It was a typical draft – WRs went too early, QBs went way too early and rookies were given too much value and went too early.
TheSportsBank.net: Peter Christian:
Who Was Your Biggest Reach?
Michael Crabtree: Michael Crabtree at the end of the 7th round was a bit high for me (I had him ranked as my 100th player on the board and took him at 84), but I knew he wasn’t going to fall to me in the 9th round and I really believe in Crabtree playing at high level immediately especially in a 49er offense that has many pieces already in place. Taken: Round 7, Pick 12
Who Was Your Biggest Steal?
Jamal Lewis: I had Cedric Benson and Jamal Lewis ranked back to back at 66 and 67. I played it safe with Benson at the 60th pick since he is going to get the bulk of the carries in Cincy’s backfield. When Lewis fell to me at 84/85 I was ecstatic to get both guys. Getting Lewis allowed me to breath easier about my RB2 spot since I could always just play match-ups between him and Benson. Taken: Round 8, Pick 1
Overall Draft Reaches?
Chris Wells: Pick 4.04: Chris Wells with the 40th pick was a pretty big reach. Taking him inside the top 60 is questionable in my book especially considering that he is in an offense that is extremely pass happy and also looks to share carries with Hightower at least to start the season.
Overall Draft Steals:
Fred Taylor: Pick 10.08: Seeing as how I was targeting Fred Taylor with my 7/8th round picks until Jamal Lewis fell in my lap I have to say Fred Taylor with the 116th pick is an absolute steal considering what the Patriots offense seems to get out of ageing running backs.
Overall Thoughts?
I thought it was very concise and deliberate. Everyone had a strategy which was good and made for some planning. With bookend picks it was interesting to watch the 22 picks that went between my two because I could literally watch my big board of players get taken one by one. I think the the fact that we all are experienced and logical players lent to the fact that we had similar pre-draft rankings and were therefore often gunning for the same players.
I’m never a guy that falls in love with my team after my draft. I usually have to talk myself into the team I selected, however I was surprisingly pleased with the team I ended up with. I was really worried about my RB2 position after the first 5 rounds but I feel like I was able to get talent at other positions to possibly cover up that hole and then was able to get a couple of solid guys that I could use to get me consistent contributions. For the most part I was impressed with everyone else’s picks as well. I constantly found myself thinking, “ooh, good pick” following about 90% of the selections (especially during the 2nd half of the draft).
LestersLegends.com: Ryan Lester:
Who Was Your Biggest Reach?
Fred Taylor: Hard to guess how Belichick will use him. Taken: Round 10, Pick 8
Who Was Your Biggest Steal?
Steve Breaston: Steve Breaston in the 9th round could be a steal. Taken: Round 9, Pick 5
Overall Thoughts?
It’s hard to judge steals and reaches this early. Jamaal Charles could be a steal. Owen Daniels was great value. As were Lynch and J-Stew. Torry Holt, Derrick Mason,Cedric Benson, and Julius Jones a bit early maybe.
FantasyDraftTools.com: Mike Pera:
What Was Your Biggest Reach?
Edge James: Not on a team, yet…but once camps start and injuries happen, he will lands somewhere, he could be valuable. Taken: Round 13, Pick 6
Overall Draft Reach?
Larry Fitzgerald: Pick 1.05: Too early for a WR, especially with other Top RBs available. The lastest i would go would be 11 or 12 in the 1st, but not at 5. I know it was a pre-draft list, but the list should have been updated properly especially in round 1.
Overall Draft Steal?
Donovan McNabb: Pick 6.06: Donovan McNabb at 6.06 (QBs went high in this draft, but getting McNabb as the 8th pick was a steal…he should have gone before Romo and Warner (possibly Rivers too).
DraftZoo.com: Hunter Ansley:
What Was Your Biggest Reach?
Brandon Marshall: I took Brandon Marshall in the third. I was targeting Knowshon Moreno with this pick, but he was taken just before it got to me, and I panicked. Marshall isn’t an awful pick, but there were other receivers, or even guys at other positions that held more value than him. Now, he’s gone AWOL from minicamps, and is bitching about a trade. I suppose if this was a real league that could work out for me, but I don’t like taking such an uncertain player with my third choice. I honestly like the receivers I got after Marshall better considering their round value. Taken: Round 3, Pick 7
What Was Your Biggest Steal?
Laurence Maroney: Not really sure here. I think Laurence Maroney could end up being a steal in the tenth round. He was hurt all of last year, and of course Tom Brady wasn’t around to scare defenses. This year, Brady is back, Maroney is healthy, and Fred Taylor is in New England to ease the load. Maroney has been a committee back all of his career, and while that will cut down on his numbers, it should also keep him on two legs. He’s still young, he’s got pretty low mileage, and he’s definitely talented. He’s a risk, sure, but if he breaks out, he’ll be a solid starting back, and that’s pretty decent for a tenth-rounder.
Overall Draft Reach?
Larry Fitzgerald: Pick 1.05: This is another tough question, because I honestly felt like everyone did a pretty solid job. But if I have to pick a reach, then I’ll reach for my pick here. Taking Larry Fitzgerald at fifth overall seems a little high to me. I know it was made based off of a pre-draft list, but taking a receiver that high doesn’t seem like the best idea. Fitzgerald is an amazing talent, but I’m worried about Kurt Warner turning 73 this season and maybe dropping off a bit. Plus, as good as Fitzgerald was, most of his really amazing games came after the fantasy season was over in the playoffs. Again, it’s hard to poke holes in any picks, but I think that one may have been the biggest reach considering there were still some pretty legit running backs on the board.
Overall Draft Steal?
LaDainian Tomlinson: Pick 1.08: As for the biggest steal, I’m going with another first round pick. Maybe that disqualifies the pick from the “steal” category, but I still like Walter’s pick of Ladanian Tomlinson. When a guy has been the top fantasy player for a few years and still manages 1500+ yards and 12 TDs in a “down year” that’s pretty good. I have a hard time believing that Darren Sproles will steal that many carries from Tomlinson, and I just don’t see how he can’t improve now that he’s healthy again. I think by the end of the year, people will be wishing they’d taken him in the top half of round one.
Overall Thoughts?
This was really the first time I’ve drafted with other guys who seemed to have such a good read on fantasy football. Really didn’t see too many reaches anywhere. Plus, it was difficult to gauge who was going to be available. Usually you can walk into these mocks and pretty much map out who’ll be around in which rounds, but it seemed like everyone knew who to get, who the sleepers were, and who couldn’t be waited on. So, I ended up taking some guys a little earlier than I normally would have. Overall though, seemed like everyone pretty much got guys that they’re happy with.
I really enjoyed the draft. It was a little tough at times, and that 16th round really threw me, and I ended up taking a kicker, which I never do. I would rather trade two good players for one really good player and pick up a kicker from free agency, but I don’t mind getting Vinatieri with my last pick. Seems like it’s a pretty good year for WR2s, and outside of Adrian Peterson, there are very few sure things at RB. I do think that Aaron Rodgers will be a top three fantasy QB this year, and I’m a little surprised that he continually gets taken fifth or sixth at that position. But other than that, I enjoyed it, and thanks to Ryan for putting this on.
WalterFootball.com: Walter Cherepinsky:
What Was Your Biggest Reach?
Chris Cooley: My biggest reach was Chris Cooley in the seventh round. By taking Cooley, I missed on some key WR3s I was looking at. There isn’t much of a difference between tight ends once you get past Witten and Gates.Taken: Round 7, Pick 8
What Was Your Biggest Steal?
Earnest Graham: My biggest steal was Earnest Graham in Round 11. Graham has every chance to win the starting running back job in Tampa this year, and if he does, he’ll put up a ton of yardage behind a very good offensive line. Taken: Round 11, Pick 8
Overall Draft Reach?
Larry Fitzgerald: Pick 1.05: The biggest reach was Fitzgerald at No. 5. As I said, I’d never take a receiver that high. The value just isn’t there.
Overall Draft Steal?
The biggest steal belonged to anyone who drafted their starting tight end in Round 9 on. Tight ends are pretty much the same after the first few, so grabbing an extra running back or wideout is a good move.
FootballFanSpot.com: Steven Laurie:
What Was Your Biggest Reach?
Chris Wells:I love Chris Wells, but I think I could have gotten him later, and even if I couldn’t have, there were still 3 receivers on the board that I had having 1100+ receiving yard seasons in the 4th, so not taking Wells wouldn’t have been so bad.Taken: Round 4, Pick 4
What Was Your Biggest Steal?
Glen Coffee: I think Glen Coffee is going to have a 800+ yard season with 8+ touchdowns. For the spot I got him at, that’s very good. I hope I’m not wrong, because if I’m not, I just got a huge steal in a fantasy draft with experts. Taken: Round 14, Pick 4
Overall Draft Reach?
Antonio Gates: Pick 3.04: A huge reach I saw was Antonio Gates in the 3rd. That was Poor value.
Overall Draft Steal?
Hakeem Nicks: Pick 9.07: I love the steal of Hakeem Nicks. He’ll have a great season. There may have been bigger steals, but that stood out.
Overall Thoughts?
This was honestly the most competitive fantasy draft I’ve ever done. I had my list of sleepers and value picks, but they kept getting snatched up. Teams were not just drafting according to ADP, but according to who had the best shot to give you the most fantasy points.
KFFL.com: Bryce McRae:
What Was Your Biggest Reach?
Kurt Warner/Terrell Owens: I don’t feel I reached on many picks. I’m most worried about taking the Buffalo Bills’ Terrell Owens and the Arizona Cardinals’ Kurt Warner, though. Owens was a bit of a reach, but I needed a No. 1 receiver and they were flying off the board. I took Warner right around his ADP at the time, but I’m still not entirely comfortable with him as my No. 1. One reason I had to come back with Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub so soon.
What Was Your Biggest Steal?
Owen Daniels: Grabbing Houston Texans tight end Owen Daniels in the 10th round was a steal. It allowed me to hold off burning an early pick on a tight end and focus on other key skill positions. Daniels is in an offense that should feature a lot of passing, and he is one of the top targets for Schaub. He could easily be one of the top fantasy tight ends this year.
Overall Draft Reach?
Pittsburgh Defense: Round 8.
Overall Draft Steal?
Plaxico Burress: Round 11: Could be a No. 1 receiver if he plays this year.
Overall Thoughts?
I felt defenses and kickers went off the board too early in this draft. I have no problems waiting until the final couple of rounds to take these two positions.
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To defend my selection, every year there are several first round RBs don’t meet expectations.
2008 – Lynch Addai, Barber, Grant
2007 – LJ, SJax, Deuce Mcallister, Rudi, travis henry, edge, Maroney
2006 – SA, lamont jordan
memory fails me a bit, but i’m sure there were a few more
Despite taking Fitz at 5, I am happy with my back set of
Ronnie Brown, Moreno, LenDale, Bradshaw, and Fred Taylor
That said, if we were to do it over again, I’d take LT. I have one more big year in him.
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