Once again, I welcome you, dear reader, to my thoughts and opinions.  Let’s start with the basics of betting:

+ / – signs – A favored team is always -, while an underdog shows a +.  For example, if the Lakers are playing the Pistons, and the Lakers are favored by 10 points, it will read: Lakers -10 or Pistons +10.  This means that if you bet the Lakers, they have to win by more than 10 points for you to win your bet.  If they win by 10, you push, meaning you get your money back.  If they win by 9 or less, you lose.  Same goes for the Pistons.  If the Pistons lose by less than 10 points, you win your bet.  If they lose by 10, you push.  If they lose by more than 10 points, you lose.

Money Line (ML) – This bet is very simple.  When you bet a money line, commonly known as ML, you are betting for the team to win the game.  If the team is favored by 10 points, you’ll get odds that show -800 or something of the sort.  This means that for every 8 dollars, you win 1.  If you bet the underdog ML and it reads +500, it means that for every 1 dollar you bet, you win 5 dollars.  For example: you put down $10 that the Lakers will win at -200.  The Lakers win (by any amount of points).  You win $5 (on top of your $10).  If you take the Pistons are +200 after betting $10, and they win the game, you get $20 (on top of your original bet of $10).  ML bets are usually only recommended when taking underdogs because you have less to lose.  Imagine betting $2,000 on a “sure thing” game were the money line is -2,000 (you’d only win $100) and there is a massive upset.

Over/Under – This simply refers to the total points scored in a game.  If the line is 180 points, you are betting whether both teams will score a combined total of more than or less than 180 points.  For example: you take the under during the Pistons/Lakers game with the line being 191.  The final score reads Lakers 91, Pistons 101.  The total is 192.  You lose your bet.

Down below are my basketball picks of the day.  Before we go any further, I would like to make two points very clear:

1)      I do not endorse gambling in any way.  I am simply giving my opinion on numbers based on statistics, trends, and gut feelings.  I will never tell you to put the house on anything, mostly because you can’t move a house without an expensive piece of machinery, and if you can afford that, what are you doing looking at my picks?

2)      Basketball is very, very different than football.  The term “Any Given Sunday” holds true for basketball, except you have to replace the word Sunday for day.  Any team can beat any other team on any given night.  Because of this, I will never post only one pick.  I will try to post a minimum of three picks, and it could spiral out of control and reach a dozen on Wednesday/Friday nights.

With that out of the way, and the devil arriving shortly to take your soul for reading what I’m writing, remember that this is all for fun.  I will never promise or guarantee any outcome in any game.  I will do my best to predict the outcomes, but if I get it wrong, it proves I’m human.  If I get all games right, you may bow your head, mortal.  I will not be posting picks every single night, as it takes a good amount of time to write them up, but I will do my best.

Recap: Yesterday I went 5-2, but only 3-2 on picks I posted.  I ended up taking the Bucks -10 and the Warriors +16.5 last minute.  The Bucks killed as expected, while an interesting statistic that says that only 6% of NBA games end with a 16 point or higher disparity helped during the Celtics/Warriors game.  The Cavs forgot to help LeBron in the second half, and when he got on the court, he played like a third grader.  The Bobcats held on close, and the Rockets blew the Wolves away.  The Pacers/Knicks scared me in the last minute of regulation, but the under hit, while the Magic seemed to have found their offensive rhythm with their All-Star point guard out.  Go figure.  Only 2 picks for today.

11.19.2009

Suns -6 at Hornets – This line should be in the double digits.  New Orleans went out and beat the Clippers without Chris Paul, while the Suns barely beat the Rockets.  The problem is that the Hornets beat the Clippers by nearly 30 points with Paul.  I still believe the Hornets are garbage and will get debacled in this one.  Remember, when both teams met in Phoenix last week, the Hornets lost by 22 points.  And that was with Paul in the lineup.

Prediction – Suns 112 – Hornets 89

Trends:

• Suns are 3-0 ATS this season when playing a team with a losing record.
• Hornets are 1-6 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent.

Bulls/Lakers Over 192 – Both teams can score, and I believe both of them will.  The Bulls are scoring 90.6 points on the road, while the Lakers are scoring an astonishing 104.1 points at home.  This game should mimic the game we saw a couple of nights ago between the Pistons and the Lakers.

Prediction – Bulls 94 – Lakers 103

Trends:

• Bulls are 26-10 ATS in the past 3 years following a win by 10 or more points.

Current Wins/Losses for the Season:

44-32 – 57.9%

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