Once again, I welcome you, dear reader, to my thoughts and opinions.  Let’s start with the basics of betting:

+ / – signs – A favored team is always -, while an underdog shows a +.  For example, if the Lakers are playing the Pistons, and the Lakers are favored by 10 points, it will read: Lakers -10 or Pistons +10.  This means that if you bet the Lakers, they have to win by more than 10 points for you to win your bet.  If they win by 10, you push, meaning you get your money back.  If they win by 9 or less, you lose.  Same goes for the Pistons.  If the Pistons lose by less than 10 points, you win your bet.  If they lose by 10, you push.  If they lose by more than 10 points, you lose.

Money Line (ML) – This bet is very simple.  When you bet a money line, commonly known as ML, you are betting for the team to win the game.  If the team is favored by 10 points, you’ll get odds that show -800 or something of the sort.  This means that for every 8 dollars, you win 1.  If you bet the underdog ML and it reads +500, it means that for every 1 dollar you bet, you win 5 dollars.  For example: you put down $10 that the Lakers will win at -200.  The Lakers win (by any amount of points).  You win $5 (on top of your $10).  If you take the Pistons are +200 after betting $10, and they win the game, you get $20 (on top of your original bet of $10).  ML bets are usually only recommended when taking underdogs because you have less to lose.  Imagine betting $2,000 on a “sure thing” game were the money line is -2,000 (you’d only win $100) and there is a massive upset.

Over/Under – This simply refers to the total points scored in a game.  If the line is 180 points, you are betting whether both teams will score a combined total of more than or less than 180 points.  For example: you take the under during the Pistons/Lakers game with the line being 191.  The final score reads Lakers 91, Pistons 101.  The total is 192.  You lose your bet.

Down below are my basketball picks of the day.  Before we go any further, I would like to make two points very clear:

1)      I do not endorse gambling in any way.  I am simply giving my opinion on numbers based on statistics, trends, and gut feelings.  I will never tell you to put the house on anything, mostly because you can’t move a house without an expensive piece of machinery, and if you can afford that, what are you doing looking at my picks?

2)      Basketball is very, very different than football.  The term “Any Given Sunday” holds true for basketball, except you have to replace the word Sunday for day.  Any team can beat any other team on any given night.  Because of this, I will never post only one pick.  I will try to post a minimum of three picks, and it could spiral out of control and reach a dozen on Wednesday/Friday nights.

With that out of the way, and the devil arriving shortly to take your soul for reading what I’m writing, remember that this is all for fun.  I will never promise or guarantee any outcome in any game.  I will do my best to predict the outcomes, but if I get it wrong, it proves I’m human.  If I get all games right, you may bow your head, mortal.  I will not be posting picks every single night, as it takes a good amount of time to write them up, but I will do my best.

11.18.2009

Cavs -5 at Wizards – This line is low because of three reasons.  1) The Wizards are expecting Antwan Jamison back in the lineup, and apparently, Vegas believes this will solve all their problems.  2) This is a nationally televised game on ESPN, which should prompt the Wizards, on a six game losing streak, to play better.  3) This is a rivalry, but as the Cavs have pointed out, the Wizards rarely win.  I like Cleveland here.  For some reason, there’s the doubt that James won’t deliver, even with Shaq out of the lineup, which is total crap because J.J. Hickson has been playing out of his mind.

Jamison has Vegas fooled, not Holder.

Prediction – Cavs 103 – Wizards 89

Trends:

• Wizards are 0-6 ATS in November this year, 66-101 ATS in the past 3 years.
• Wizards are 0-1 ATS with 3 days rest this year, 25-45 ATS all time.
• Wizards are 1-7 ATS revenging the loss against an opponent.

Bobcats +4 at 76ers – If you’ve read my power rankings, I believe the 76ers are lost.  Iggy may show up for this game and drop 30 points, but that won’t help Philadelphia against a re-energized Bobcats crew.  The day Jackson started, they gave Orlando a rough time at home.  With Speights going down with a leg injury, I don’t see why the 76ers are even favored here.

Prediction – Bobcats 89 – 76ers 85

Trends:

• 76ers are 1-6 ATS in November this year.
• 76ers are 3-7 ATS this year.

Thunder/Magic Under 189.5 – With Jameer Nelson undergoing surgery, and a rusty Rashard Lewis, the Magic will have a hard time on offense.  On defense, they will be fired up to avenge their ugliest loss of the season to the Thunder, who seem to be on a rollercoaster this season, recently defeating the Heat.  Don’t be surprised if both teams are hot in the first quarter, but they should both cool down in the second half.

Can Superman help avenge the loss against the Thunder?

Prediction – Thunder 85 – Magic 97

Trends:

• None that back me up, so I will make one up: it’ll go under.

Rockets -7 at Timberwolves – What am I missing here?  The Rockets, who almost beat one of the best teams out there at home last night with the Suns, are only getting 7 points against the lowly Wolves?  I think this line has been set too low.  The Rockets have a lot more talent than the Wolves, who should be preparing for a blowout.

Prediction – Rockets 103 – Wolves 82.

Trends:

• Wolves are 4-13 ATS as a home underdog of 6.5 – 9 points in the last 3 years.
• Wolves are 30-56 ATS at home in the last 3 years.
• Wolves are 3-11 ATS in a home game where the total is 200-204.5 in the last 3 years.
• Wolves are 1-5 ATS this year after losing by more than 10 points.
• Wolves are 1-6 ATS this year after 3 consecutive losses.

Knicks/Pacers Under 215 – This pick is more of a gut feeling than anything else.  The Pacers barely put up 95 points against the Nets, and at home, they have been hitting the under more than the over.  The Knicks, meanwhile, suck.  This line could be inflated based on games they have played against each other in the past season.

Prediction – Knicks 95 – Pacers 108

Trends:

• Pacers are 2-5 O/U this year.
• Knicks are averaging 93.3 pts on the road, Pacers 99.8 pts at home.

Current Wins/Losses for the Season: 39-30 – 56.5%

Popularity: 1% [?]